Can the IMF solve the poor world’s debt crisis?

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Can the IMF solve the poor world’s debt crisis?

The Economist | April 18, 2024

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At the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, held in Washington, DC, this week, many of the world’s policymakers were acting as if the worst debt crisis since the 1980s, by portion of world population affected, had come to an end. After all, the poorest countries in the world grew at a respectable 4% last year. Some, such as Kenya, are even borrowing from international markets again.

In reality, the crisis rolls on. The governments that went bust still have not managed to restructure their debts and dig out of default. As such, they are stuck in limbo. Over time more—and bigger—countries could join them. So in between the spring meetings’ embassy dinners and think-tank soirées, the IMF’s board announced a radical new step to deal with the problem.

The core of the difficulty in resolving debt crises has been that there are more creditors, with less in common, than in the past.  Chief among the new lenders is China. Even though the country is now the world’s biggest bilateral creditor, it has yet to write down a single loan. India has doubled its annual overseas lending from 2012 to 2022; it sent $3.3bn to Sri Lanka soon after the country was plunged into crisis. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are in the group, too. They have together lent more than $30bn to Egypt. 

As a result, the seven countries that have sought restructuring since the start of the pandemic have been unable to strike a deal to whittle down what they owe. The IMF, which usually cannot lend to countries with unsustainably high debts, has been unable to do much. Yet on April 16th it made a move. It said it would lend to countries that have defaulted on debts but have not negotiated a deal to restructure all their debts. The policy is known as “lending into arrears”.

In the past the fund, worried about getting its cash back, has lent into arrears sparingly and only with the permission of creditors still tussling over restructuring. Now all it is asking for is a promise from borrowing countries and co-operative creditors that its cash injections will not be used to pay off the holdouts. The imf’s economists have long feared that such a step would antagonise problem creditors, which are also countries with stakes in the fund itself. It seems the fund’s patience has run out: officials want to get debt restructuring moving.

The new policy has the potential to impose discipline on the holdouts. In theory, restructurings work because easing the burden on borrowers maximises creditors’ chances of getting some—perhaps most—of their money back. The fund lending into arrears sharpens the incentive to comply because lenders who hold up negotiations face the prospect of not getting anything. They would be the ones frozen in limbo, while everyone else strikes a deal and carries on. The policy also strengthens the hand of debtors. In the past they may have feared walking away from their debts to, say, China, which is an easy source of emergency cash even after a default. Now if they wish to do so, they will have an alternative lender in the form of the IMF.

3 key takeaways from the article

1. At the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, held in Washington, DC, this week, many of the world’s policymakers were acting as if the worst debt crisis since the 1980s, by portion of world population affected, had come to an end. 
2. In reality, the crisis rolls on. The governments that went bust still have not managed to restructure their debts and dig out of default. As such, they are stuck in limbo. Over time more—and bigger—countries could join them. So in between the spring meetings’ embassy dinners and think-tank soirées, the IMF’s board announced a radical new step to deal with the problem.
3. On April 16th it said it would lend to countries that have defaulted on debts but have not negotiated a deal to restructure all their debts. The policy is known as “lending into arrears” – it is asking for is a promise from borrowing countries and co-operative creditors that its cash injections will not be used to pay off the holdouts. 

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Topics:  Poor Countries, IMF, Debt, Lending