The State of Luxury: What US and Chinese clients reveal about the sector’s future

What do value, desirability, and exclusivity mean to luxury consumers? Increasingly, the answer depends on where they live.

As the luxury market emerges from a period of slower growth, consumers in the United States and China will play an outsized role in determining which brands emerge as leaders. These two countries represent the industry’s most significant concentration of luxury demand: The United States remains the world’s largest luxury market by sales, while China is expected to be among its fastest-growing through 2030. Overall, the global luxury market is projected to reach $700 billion by the end of the decade, growing 4 to 6 percent annually.

Drawing on a survey of more than 2,000 luxury clients in the United States and China, and extensive interviews with clients across both markets, this year’s State of Luxury report examines client expectations across four dimensions—desirability, exclusivity, moments, and discovery—and what brands must do to remain relevant in a more fragmented luxury landscape.

If status doesn’t drive purchases, what does?  Consumers’ desire for status symbols, or highly covetable and visible goods, has long supported growth for luxury labels. That’s beginning to change.  Across both the US and Chinese markets, emotional connection now ranks as a top driver of brand desirability, ahead of traditional luxury markers such as craftsmanship, heritage, and exclusivity. Consumers are looking for brands that reflect their identity, values, and aspirations, rather than simply signaling wealth or status.

When anyone can buy a luxury product, what makes it exclusive?  Consumers are becoming skeptical of scarcity for scarcity’s sake. Being recognized by the right people—the “if you know, you know” crowd—is more important than being recognized by everyone.  Across both the United States and China, relatively few consumers say that a product being difficult to find is what motivates them to pay full price. Instead, exclusivity is tied to recognition, access, and experiences that feel earned rather than engineered.

How does a brand sell goods when experiences become luxury’s biggest competitor?  Consumers are evaluating their relationship with luxury according to the moments and memories that may be linked to a brand.  The shift is visible in how consumers say they would spend additional discretionary income. Travel ranks as the top choice in both markets, ahead of any luxury product category. But the broader implication is not that consumers prefer vacations to handbags. It is that they increasingly associate luxury with experiences that feel personal, memorable, and difficult to replicate.

What happens when brands lose control of discovery?  Consumers are using AI tools, resale platforms, creators, and peer networks to research, compare, and validate products before they ever enter a boutique. The path to purchase is becoming more intentional, more informed, and more influenced by platforms that brands do not fully control.  AI is accelerating this shift. Across both the United States and China, consumers most frequently use AI during the exploration phase of the purchase journey to understand product differences, compare options, and receive personalized recommendations.

In tomorrow’s luxury market, products may be the easier part of the equation for brands to get right. Across the United States and China, consumers are redefining what luxury should deliver: more emotional meaning, insider recognition, memorable experiences, and rewarding discoveries. The next generation of luxury leaders will be those that deliver on those intangible, irreplaceable elements that consumers value as much as the products themselves.

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