Ian Bremmer: Brace yourself — Trump’s foreign policy could reshape the business world

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Around the world in 2024, voters chose change: in South Africa, France, Britain, and Japan. But nowhere does the anti-incumbent trend matter more than in the United States. The global uncertainty created by an oscillation of power between left and right—from Barack Obama to Donald Trump to Joe Biden and back to Trump—in the world’s only military superpower has again left political and business leaders in every region of the world scrambling to spot opportunities and risk.

The 2016 election of Trump was a surprise to allies and adversaries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, but it came in the context of relative international stability. His comeback victory comes in a dramatically more unstable—and dangerous—geopolitical environment. Trump must manage two wars and a U.S. relationship with China that has grown much more confrontational.

For business leaders navigating the next four years, there are critical questions that must be answered.

Are we heading into a trade war with China?  Trump’s primary interest in China remains in its massive bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. Trump has said he will levy significant tariffs against Beijing and against third countries through which Chinese-manufactured goods enter the U.S. For now, it appears China will counter with a tit-for-tat response of some kind, even if it further slows China’s already tepid economic growth.  Trump is also unlikely to manage relations with Taiwan as carefully as President Biden has, and Beijing will not hesitate to push back when Taiwan is at issue.

Will Europe remain united over Ukraine?  The trade pressure, combined with the uncertainty over Ukraine, could force Europeans together in solidarity—or it could lead individual European governments to seek side deals with Washington, meant to lessen the individual economic burdens they’re now carrying.

Will Trump calm the Middle East, or escalate its wars?  Trump could work on normalization to of ties between Israel and the Saudis, which would be an economic and security win for both countries. For now, Saudi officials continue to insist that any such deal would depend on creation of a Palestinian state, a nonstarter for the vast majority of Israelis. Trump is the leader best placed to test Saudi resolve on that question.    In Gaza, the violence is more likely to continue, since Israelis are far more determined to “break” Hamas than Hezbollah, and Trump is unlikely to advocate for the creation of a Palestinian state or even an improvement in Gaza’s humanitarian crises.  Another question swirling ahead of America’s regime change: Will Israel and the U.S. go to war with Iran?

How will the Global South fare?  Trump’s economic policies will strengthen the dollar and increase inflation, leaving developing countries under even more economic pressure.

What will Trump mean for the U.S.’s North American neighbors?  Mexico and Canada, America’s biggest trade partners after China, know they will face more economic pressure from Trump 2.0.

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