How a dollar crisis would unfold

The dollar is meant to be a source of safety. Lately, however, it has been a cause of fear. Since its peak in mid-January the greenback has fallen by over 9% against a basket of major currencies. Two-fifths of that fall has happened since April 1st, even as the yield on ten-year Treasuries has crept up by 0.2 percentage points. That mix of rising yields and a falling currency is a warning sign: if investors are fleeing even though returns are up, it must be because they think America has become more risky. Rumours are rife that big foreign asset managers are dumping greenbacks.

For decades investors have counted on the stability of American assets, making them the keystones of global finance. The depth of a $27trn market helps make Treasuries a haven; the dollar dominates trade in everything from goods and commodities to derivatives. The system is buttressed by the Federal Reserve, which promises low inflation, and by America’s sturdy governance, under which foreigners and their money have been welcome and secure. In just a few weeks President Donald Trump has replaced these ironclad assumptions with stomach-churning doubts.

This crisis-in-the-making was created in the White House. Mr Trump’s reckless trade war has raised tariffs by roughly a factor of ten and created economic uncertainty. Once the envy of the world, America’s economy is now courting recession, as tariffs rupture supply chains, boost inflation and punish consumers.  

This comes as America’s historically bad fiscal position is becoming even worse.  Net debts stand at about 100% of GDP; the budget deficit over the past year, of 7%, was astonishingly high for a healthy economy. Yet in its quest to renew and extend tax cuts from Mr Trump’s first term, Congress wants to borrow still more.

What makes this economic downturn and the loss of fiscal discipline so explosive is the fact that markets are starting to doubt whether Mr Trump can govern America competently or consistently. The shambolic, incoherent way the tariffs were calculated, unveiled and delayed was a mockery of policymaking. On-again, off-again exemptions and sectoral tariffs promote lobbying. For decades America has carefully signalled its dedication to a strong dollar. Today some White House advisers are talking about the reserve currency as if it were a burden to be shared—using coercion if necessary.

Meanwhile, the president’s other policies—such as shipping undocumented migrants to El Salvador without a hearing, or harassing law firms that displease him—make it possible to think that foreign creditors’ rights could suffer.

All this has created a risk premium for American assets.

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