Why it has never been better to be a big company

 For all the unwieldiness it entails, scale has always brought enormous benefits in business. Fixed costs are set against more revenue, raising profits and supporting investment. Heft brings greater bargaining power with suppliers and financiers. From the early 2000s, the advantages of scale became even more pronounced. Intangible assets, including software and intellectual property, gave the upper hand to companies that could afford to invest in them. Globalisation provided big companies with more room to grow, as well as access to larger—and cheaper—pools of labour. In America, the gap in profitability between big and small firms widened. Economists began to speak of “superstar” firms racing ahead of the competition.

Now size is conferring advantages in new ways. Artificial intelligence (AI) is reinforcing the dominance of big firms over small ones. So is the presidency of Donald Trump, which has raised the importance of resilience and political sway. Yet these same disruptions could spell danger for America’s corporate giants. Already companies from Apple to Walmart are discovering how their size can make them a target of Mr Trump’s wrath.

Start with AI. You might imagine that lumbering leviathans would be too tied up in bureaucracy to make use of the technology. In fact, their scale allows them to invest far more in it than smaller rivals.  It is not only technology, but politics, too, that is making it even better to be big. Although many of Mr Trump’s tariffs now face legal uncertainty, those that remain will hammer sales and profits for businesses. Big firms, though, tend to be more resilient to such shocks.  Bigness tends also to bring increased supply-chain resilience—just as important in a trade war as it was amid covid-19.  Last, with scale comes an increasingly valuable asset: political capital.

All this helps explain why, since Mr Trump’s inauguration, the Russell 2000 index of America’s smallest listed companies is down by 11%, compared with a drop of only 3% in the S&P 100 index of America’s largest firms. Yet the shifting business landscape also presents dangers for corporate giants.

As with all new technologies, incumbents that are too timid in using AI will be exposed to newcomers that have built themselves around it. Then there is the risk that Mr Trump’s tariffs result in a lasting reversal of globalisation which limits companies’ access to foreign markets. That scenario would hit big companies harder than small ones. America’s top quintile of listed non-financial firms by revenue derive 23% of their combined sales abroad, compared with just 7% for the bottom quintile.  America’s corporate giants have enjoyed super-sized advantages. They should be prepared for some super-sized headaches, too.