Trump’s $12 Billion Tourism Wipeout

US President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies have cut into travel worldwide. The simmering trade war, the crackdown at the border and the rollback of LGBTQ rights—capped by a ban on visitors from a dozen countries announced on June 4—have led to tens of thousands of canceled trips. With travelers choosing alternate destinations, the American economy will lose out on $12.5 billion this year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council—which will widen the trade deficit, because economists count spending by visitors to the country as an export.  The toll the president’s policies have taken on travel in 9 profound ways.

1. Visitor Deficit.  Foreign arrivals to the US by air have fallen 2.5% so far this year through April from a year ago, according to the US International Trade Administration. The biggest drop—10%—came in March, after Trump announced tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Trump’s policies have prompted a travel boycott from Canadians, the largest group of visitors, and anti-American sentiment is on the rise in Europe. Although the US hasn’t yet released data on land entries from Canada, that country’s statistics bureau said trips across the southern border fell 15% in April, the third straight month of decline. Air France, British Airways and Lufthansa are all cutting flights to destinations such as Atlanta, Las Vegas, Miami and New York, website AeroRoutes reports.  Before Trump took office, analysts expected 2025 to be a bumper year for US tourism, with almost 79 million foreign visitors—approaching pre-pandemic levels. But given the political turmoil, research company Tourism Economics has scaled back its forecast to 66 million as global travelers increasingly choose alternate destinations.
2. Sluggish Recovery.  Foreign tourism in the US has bounced back from the pandemic more slowly than in many other places, and this year for the first time since 2020, the gains have reversed. Spending by overseas visitors in 2025 will fall 7%, to less than $169 billion, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. Of the 184 economies the WTTC tracks, the US is the only one expected to see tourism revenue decline this year, and the group says it won’t return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2030.  
3. America the Avoidable.  The changes vary dramatically, and some places—Argentina, Brazil, Israel, Mongolia and Russia among them—have logged gains in arrivals. But 11 of the top 20 markets for US visits have fallen this year through April, according to US and Canadian government data. If the trend continues, a forecast from the US National Travel and Tourism Office released in March—predicting a 6.5% increase in overseas visitors this year, including more Canadians, Mexicans and Europeans—may prove ambitious.
4. Enter at Your Own Risk.  At least a dozen countries have advised their citizens to exercise caution on visits to the US.  
5. Bookings Downdraft.  Global air bookings to the US from May 1 to July 31 are 11% lower than a year ago, according to Tourism Economics.  
6. The Hardest-Hit US Cities.  Of the 20 American cities that raked in the most spending by foreign visitors last year, 18 will see declines, Tourism Economics predicts.
7. Corporate Retreat.  Given the combative rhetoric on trade emanating from the White House, business confidence is plummeting. The Global Business Travel Association, an industry group, initially predicted corporate travel spending would climb to a record $1.63 trillion this year. But an April survey of global travel managers showed almost a third expect a decrease in company spending as a result of recent US government actions, which could mean a 5% drop, to about $1.55 trillion. The number of western Europeans entering the US on business visas fell 18% in April, according to US government data.
8. Fewer US Jet-Setters.  Some 18% of Americans plan to take a vacation overseas within the next six months, 6 points below the level in December, according to the Conference Board, an economic analysis group. In an April survey by Future Partners, a research company that polls American travelers monthly, almost 70% of respondents said they’ve made at least one adjustment to their vacation plans based on economic concerns, with 14% nixing pricier overseas journeys for domestic trips instead.