Informed i’s Weekly Business Insights

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House last year, the US has fallen into a tourism trough. His on-again, off-again tariffs, toughened borders and visa policies, agents dispatched to American cities and deployments of troops abroad have made the country a far less inviting destination for global travelers. As would-be overseas visitors went elsewhere or simply stayed home, the US tourism industry lost out on as much as $16.6 billion in 2025 and is headed for an additional $21 billion deficit this year — what it might have earned if it had maintained its pre-Trump market share — researcher Tourism Economics estimates. 

Although 71 million foreign visitors are expected to journey to the US this year — an increase of about 3% — a full recovery to the pre-pandemic record of 80 million, reached in 2018, isn’t expected until 2029, the year Trump leaves office, according to Tourism Economics’ projections.

Riding a post-pandemic wave of so-called revenge travel, worldwide tourism rebounded to its pre-Covid-19 level in 2024. The US has yet to reach that milestone, though international arrivals jumped a respectable 9% that year. But in 2025, as Trump returned to office, visits to the US dropped 5.5% even as the global market expanded 4.7% — a difference of more than 10 percentage points.

Since Trump’s return to the White House, there have been fewer visitors from western Europe and China — traditionally the highest-spending holiday makers.   Foreign tourists spend an average of $4,000 per trip to the US, and as more of them stayed away, international visitor spending in the US fell 4.6% last year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council. The US was one of just a handful of developed countries to post declines in international visitor spending in 2025, according to Tourism Economics, joining the likes of Haiti, Iran, Nigeria and Pakistan.

Proposed changes to the visa waiver system known as ESTA, available to citizens of more than three dozen developed countries, would require visitors to hand over extensive information regarding social media accounts, family contacts and email addresses from the past decade. The new rules would deter some 4.7 million people from the affected countries coming to the US — almost a quarter below the typical level — blowing a $15.7 billion hole in foreign-visitor spending, the World Travel & Tourism Council estimates.

As tourists bypass the US, other destinations are benefiting. Increasing numbers of travelers are savoring the history and modernity of China, Hong Kong and Japan. And Europe’s cafes, castles, museums and monuments continue to be a big draw, with Austria, Greece, Italy and Spain posting strong gains.

South Korea is the epicenter of the chip boom fueling the AI race. Samsung and SK Hynix supply the vast majority of the world’s high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which power Nvidia’s AI accelerators—the GPUs used to train AI models. As AI companies spend hundreds of billions of dollars on building data centers around the world, demand for HBMs is rising beyond what suppliers can keep up with, driving their prices to unprecedented levels. Samsung and SK Hynix are raking in record profits as a result. 

South Korea’s economy now orbits the two chip giants. In May, both companies topped $1 trillion in market value. And chip exports helped fuel a 1.7% surge in South Korea’s gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2026. South Korea’s main equity index, Kospi, has nearly tripled over the past year, becoming the best-performing market in the world.

Swimming in cash, chip workers are going on shopping sprees in department stores near the “semicon belt” fabs—splurging on everything from lavish furniture and electronic appliances to jewelry and watches. They’re also snapping up homes near the commuter-shuttle routes that ferry workers to campus. And they’re shelling out for matchmakers.

The AI chip boom is changing the social fabric of South Korea by minting a new elite of “silicon-collar” workers earning about 20 times as much as the average South Korean. Although it’s helping some chip workers to find relationships, it’s also fueling fears of a deepening wealth disparity—and a loud public debate about inequality.

In South Korea, matchmaking companies evaluate their clients on a long list of criteria such as education, job, income, looks, and family background, including whether their aging parents have saved enough for retirement. In an economy where housing prices and child care costs are soaring, competition for jobs is fierce, and the social safety net is thin, a good job is the ultimate dating credential—all the more coveted at a time when many young South Koreans are forgoing marriage and children altogether, seeing family life as an unaffordable dream.

Every client at Sunoo gets a spouse rating, determined by an algorithm that assigns scores for each criterion. Since their hefty bonuses were announced, the job ratings of Samsung employees have risen from 80 to 84, while those of SK Hynix employees climbed from 78 to 82. Scores above 90 are reserved for doctors and lawyers. Long prized as paragons of prestige and wealth, they’re now close to being overtaken by chip workers. A score of 99, the highest possible rating, is earmarked for heads of state.

While chip workers enjoy the fruits of their labor, the bonus bonanza is stoking anxieties among other South Koreans.  Workers in other industries are venting online about feeling demoralized by the ballooning wealth gap.

Then there’s the question of how long this new social class will last. The semiconductor industry is notoriously cyclical; AI spending may cool, or rival chipmakers could catch up. There’s also the risk that chip workers will be replaced by automation. Samsung announced in March that it plans to fully automate its fabs by 2030, drawing backlash from chip workers.

Businesses and governments managed to keep energy prices from skyrocketing as much as feared during the Iran war by leaning into a “just-in-time” delivery system that harnesses innovations in digital and satellite technology and that reduces the need to stockpile barrels of oil.

Call it the “Amazon of oil,” said Jim Wicklund, a veteran oil analyst and managing director at the PPHB energy investment firm, comparing energy industry dynamics to the ecommerce giant’s famous mastery of inventory and logistics.

Even with President Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire “over” on Wednesday amid a fresh exchange of military strikes, the U.S. benchmark for crude prices still only spiked about 5% to $74 per barrel—way below the mid-May high of $112.

While energy traders may see the latest attacks and verbal barbs as dips along the negotiation rollercoaster, they’ve also been encouraged by the adaptability of global energy logistics, even amid the greatest global energy shock of the modern age when the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz temporarily cut off almost 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

“When you go back to the 1970s when we had the oil shocks, you had no way of knowing what oil was where and what it was doing,” Wicklund told Fortune. “Today, I can hit my terminal and find every tanker full of oil on the ocean, who owns it, what’s in it, and who to call to get it diverted to me. So, inventories have not meant nearly as much to oil prices here in the last few years as they used to.

“The correlation between inventories and oil price has been dropping from a high correlation to almost no correlation today. I don’t need physical inventories like I used to. I can order immediately off the Amazon of oil and buy cargoes on the water,” he said.

Another saving grace for logistics was the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily waive the 106-year-old Jones Act, which requires cargo ships moving between U.S. ports to be U.S. built, flagged, and manned, reducing the number of vessels available to move crude oil and refined products between domestic ports.

While large commercial oil inventories haven’t meant as much as they once did, the national strategic reserves of the U.S. and especially China have proven pivotal. The other major reason oil prices didn’t rise as high as feared is because China built up its storage stockpiles to all-time highs and dramatically cut down on its imports after the war began.

Before the war began, China imported more than 11.5 million barrels per day. By June, China’s imports plunged below 7 million barrels daily, effectively lowering global oil demand by almost 5 million barrels per day. Although China doesn’t reveal many details, the U.S. government estimates China’s oil reserves had risen to about 1.4 billion barrels before the war began—the product of a yearslong emphasis on building up strategic stockpiles.

Likewise, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since 1983, but it still holds more than 300 million barrels of crude—319 million barrels as of July 3—which is down from 415 million barrels at the beginning of the war.

And because Trump wants to keep fuel prices lower, there’s little chance the U.S. starts replenishing its strategic reserves before the midterm elections this year, analysts said. Trump has authorized the overall release of 172 million barrels over several months, so supplies could still dip much lower before they’re built back up maybe beginning next year.

The pace of change that AI brings is making many leaders feel significant pressure to adapt faster than they are accustomed to. And for many, the stakes feel very high.

In latest McKinsey Global Survey of more than 1,200 executives and managers, 40 percent of respondents expect their current business model to require significant change within the next three years just to remain economically viable.1 Yet there is significant optimism. Nearly 40 percent of respondents expect their organization to be a first mover when it comes to AI, and 60 percent believe they will successfully differentiate themselves from their peers through these moves.

But there is a gap between ambition and experience. Fewer than half of those respondents who aspire to be AI first movers say their organizations are currently first movers in general. This means companies are attempting to act more quickly than they have before, in a landscape that is less familiar due to the AI.

These companies are not necessarily superior at predicting the future. Rather, survey data show they are more able than others to secure commitment within the organization to execute the moves despite uncertainty and reallocate resources based on performance (as opposed to internal politics or fear).

First movers successfully fund what matters, across both capital and people. And, as first movers’ specific behaviors and mindsets demonstrate, they are highly aligned on strategic priorities and what is required to deliver on them.

When thinking about “first movers,” individuals often focus entirely on the “first” aspect. However, the “moving” part is arguably the more critical part. Concepts can’t create value if resources aren’t allocated to them. For example, Apple did not invent the MP3 player—but, unlike others, it was willing to reorganize and create an ecosystem around “digital music consumption” before the market fully matured.

Indeed, first movers are significantly more decisive about shifting their resources to enable a new opportunity. Respondents who describe their organizations as first movers—whom we refer to as “first movers” in these findings—are more than three times more likely to reallocate at least 20 percent of resources year over year as late movers are.

Ideas alone rarely create advantage; that comes from moving enough capital, talent, and management attention behind the idea for it to matter. While making bold bets can be a risk, so is moving hesitantly, which can sometimes signal to a more decisive competitor that an opportunity exists.

The idea of being nimble is often unfairly associated with prioritizing short-term gains over long-term value. First movers are not shortsighted. In fact, the survey results show they are about three times as likely as late movers are to avoid being overly focused on short-term goals, and they devote more than twice as much of their innovation or R&D spend as late movers do to longer-term investments.  So how do first movers manage this, and what can companies learn from them about how to commit despite uncertainty?

How first movers get the organization to actually move.  First movers can, of course, get things wrong. But waiting to invest in a sure bet can also be dangerous, particularly during times of disruption. Mck research shows that first movers tend to take a few critical steps to derisk their bold moves.  They align on what matters.  They make decisions based on performance, not politics or fear.  They can compare apples to oranges.  They correct the course more quickly.  And first movers are also first with AI.

For years a common assumption has guided hiring decisions across private equity: When in doubt about whom to hire to run a portfolio company, choose somebody who’s been the CEO of a PE-backed venture before. But times are changing. Today, in the face of talent shortages, bolder value-creation plans, and increasingly complex transformations, PE firms are looking beyond that familiar profile.

More corporate C-suite executives now view PE-backed firms as a compelling pathway to their first CEO role. That trend has been fueled by the rapid growth in the number of PE-owned businesses and the resulting supply-demand imbalance for CEOs with experience running them.  According to Citizens Bank, the number of U.S. PE-backed companies has increased by more than 400% over the past 25 years, while the number of publicly listed companies has declined by roughly 35%.

Clearly, not every accomplished corporate leader will be well suited for a CEO role at a PE-backed firm. So what are the keys to success?  The authors’ research identified five capabilities that are consistent predictors of success.

1. Practical commercial orientation. Corporate executives often are great at long-range planning, but CEOs of PE-owned companies are under immediate pressure to translate strategy into value creation. Those who succeed understand what will move the needle and adjust a firm’s direction quickly as data comes in.
2. Ability to tackle strategy under pressure. Corporate leaders often craft strategy in long planning cycles that involve heavy governance and extensive stakeholder alignment, but portfolio-company CEOs are under constant time pressure.
3. Ability to wield influence widely to create impact. CEOs of PE-backed ventures often need to exert direct and indirect influence across a large range of stakeholders—from direct reports to people in the broader organization to board members—in order to achieve the alignment that enables execution. They must systematically mobilize the organization toward faster decisions and tangible results with an intense, deliberate presence. That means spending significant time in the field, working one-on-one with leaders and engaging with their teams and frontline employees. New CEOs need to stay close enough to the work to test assumptions and remove blockers while deliberately pushing accountability for results down and across the organization.
4. Willingness to take risk. In our analysis, portfolio-company CEOs were 12% more likely to score high on risk-taking than corporate C-suite leaders were. Leaders who thrive in PE-backed firms don’t wait for consensus or perfect information; they place selective bets, make trade-offs quickly, and own the consequences transparently.
5. Interpersonal range. PE environments demand clarity, candor, and the ability to work well with a wide variety of people. They require leaders who can quickly grasp people’s motivations, understand how their own styles and decisions affect others, and adapt their approaches to galvanize people and resolve conflict when it arises.

The machine is spinning faster than we can process and think. The acceleration extends far beyond AI: the inbox, the KPIs, escalating disruptions, tools meant to save time that consume more. Overwhelm has become a shared planetary experience. It is also an early warning signal that something essential is being eroded, precisely when we most need it.

This erosion has a name, a diagnosis, and a response. The name is intelligence monoculture: the assumption that AI is the only intelligence worth investing in. The diagnosis is that monocultures, sooner or later, collapse. Our response should be to create a second infrastructure, running in parallel to the agentic AI-enabled IT stack: a deep-sensing leadership infrastructure that cultivates the collective capacities to co-sense and cocreate at the level of the whole system. With it, AI becomes survivable and useful. Without it, the first infrastructure depletes the very soil it is rooted in — heading toward erosion and, eventually, collapse.

This is the blind spot. Leaders have a strong grasp of what they do (the actions they take, the strategies they execute) and how they do it (the processes, the systems, the tools). What remains hidden is the inner place from which they operate: the source of attention, intention, and creativity that no machine can replicate.

The age of AI forces us to clarify our assumptions about intelligence. Can thinking be reduced to computation and pattern recognition? Or is human thinking qualitatively different? And underlying this looms a deeper question: Who are we as human beings? Are we mere extensions of increasingly powerful algorithms — or genuine sources of awareness, intention, and agency?

The author identified four structures of attention that organize how we listen, think, and act:

1.0: Downloading. I listen to what I already know.  2.0: Factual listening. I lean into new facts with curiosity.   3.0: Empathic listening. I see the world through the perspective of another. 4.0: Generative listening. I listen to what is emerging from the edges, leaning into its best future potential.

Resilient organizations operate and innovate across four levels of collective action. Each level involves a distinct structure of attention and, in the age of AI, a distinct set of core leadership skills for the respective human-AI interface.

Level 1.0: Pattern-Executing — Automating. Level 2.0: Pattern-Adapting — Augmenting.   Level 3.0:   Level 4.0: Pattern-Originating — Deep Sensing and Cocreating. 

As AI dramatically reduces the cost of replicating expertise, what was once the source of competitive advantage — proprietary methods, scale, 10 years of training — collapses. What is truly irreplaceable about a company in the age of AI? Not algorithms; those are commodifying. The real source is the capacity to build organizations where technological intelligence and human field intelligence can evolve together.

The hidden infrastructure for this resilience is the people who sense tensions before they become crises, who hold trust across stakeholder groups, who perceive what customers cannot articulate. These forms of intelligence rarely appear in KPIs, yet they are often the source of an organization’s deepest competitive durability. This constitutes the paradox of the AI era: The more that intelligence becomes abundant, the more the relational and field-based intelligence becomes scarce — and therefore valuable.

What organizations now need to do is invest in deep-sensing infrastructure with the same seriousness they invest in AI. This is the other half of the infrastructure that is missing today in most organizations and economies.

In corporate communications, reputation is built and tested in moments of crisis. Whether navigating an immediate issue or protecting long-term credibility, top communication officers are making decisions with incomplete information and watching dynamics shift, while everyone is expecting them to act with precision under pressure.

According to the author. surprisingly, one of the best training grounds he has found to hone these skills has not been my boardroom or a war room, but at the mahjong table. American mahjong came from the 19th-century Chinese game and became popular in the United States in the 1920s. It is a fast-paced, strategy-driven competition played with 152 tiles. Players come together with the goal of collecting the tiles for winning patterns while playing defense at the same time. It’s a lot to consider.​

At first, the game can be overwhelming. It is complex, high stakes and unforgiving if you commit to a strategy too quickly or make a careless decision. But beyond the instructions, mahjong is fundamentally a game of strategy, emotional intelligence and impeccable timing. These very same attributes are needed for communications leaders who want to help their organizations grow and drive value.

For today’s communications professionals, the parallels between successful management of a crisis and the game are striking.

Balance patience with speed.  The game demands a constant balancing act. You rarely have all the information you need, but you must move decisively. Success comes from knowing when to pause and when to act.  Reputation management operates the same way. In a crisis, if you wait too long to respond, you can lose trust. However, reacting too quickly can create even greater brand damage. The discipline lies in thinking several moves ahead while remaining agile in the moment. ​

Every action has consequences.  When playing mahjong, every discarded tile matters. Move too quickly, and you may instantly hand your opponent a much-desired win. But holding on too long may limit your own opportunities.  In crisis communications, the stakes are even higher. Every statement, lack of action or a tone that is inauthentic to your brand signals to your stakeholders that you are not in control. You must be deliberate in your response while also being timely and accurate. Acting with intention and, at times, restraint is at the center of both strong players and strong communicators.​

The ability to pivot is the name of the game.  You get your tiles on the rack and start building a hand, but depending on the tiles you pick up and those discarded by your opponents, you may determine you need to shift. You may need to abandon a thoughtful strategy because of a change in circumstances.  A communications team can have a narrative and talking points prepared, but when a crisis hits, every asset can be irrelevant in minutes. In both situations, it’s critical that you have the skills to pivot to a path that offers success. ​

Read the room constantly.  You do not play this game in isolation; the game ideally has four players. And so, you are elbow to elbow, and success depends on observing facial expressions, how the opponents rack their tiles, what they discard and what they expose. All these things can indicate whether your plan will lead to success.  When your organization’s reputation is under fire, you are not just managing what is happening internally, but also operating in your broader ecosystem of stakeholders, competitors, regulators, the news, customers and the general public.​ So, every move and every communication contribute to the narrative landscape. If you are not exerting strong situational awareness, your risks will increase, and it will jeopardize the outcomes you desire.​

Master emotional control.  Even the most experienced mahjong players feel the pressure of the game. They differ from the novice because they have learned to manage their emotions. Having the discipline to remain calm, focused and adaptable is what separates the winners from the losers.  In high stakes communications, you are trusted and paid to be the most controlled and calm person in the room. Crises, by nature, are inherently stressful, so you need to be measured and composed with every action.​

Think long-term and even short-term.  The players who are rewarded are the ones who resist the temptation of quick wins and develop a sustained strategy to manage their hand.  When you lead a reputation management program, the same rule applies. While the crisis demands immediate action, every response contributes to how stakeholders perceive your brand, trustworthiness and credibility, today and over time. ​

Build discipline through practice.  Mah Jong is not mastered in a single sitting. It takes tremendous practice, reflection and feedback to develop the instincts that lead to a successful game.  For communications professionals, crisis skill-building is an ongoing practice. You need to study scenarios, proactively assessing risk and communicating effectively under pressure. Each crisis, like each game, sharpens judgment and strengthens leadership capabilities.

Steve Jobs is commonly quoted as saying: “If your customer buys it once, you made a sale. If they come back, you built trust. If they tell others, you built a brand.”  That’s the difference between a transaction and something that lasts. Real brands don’t just win customers; they earn repeat business, loyalty, and word of mouth that compounds over time.

One of the clearest modern examples is Toy Story. The franchise has remained culturally relevant for more than 30 years, from the original film in 1995 to Toy Story 5 in 2026. The series is a global hit attracts kids, parents, and even grandparents.  But this isn’t just a Hollywood issue. The same formula applies to brands like Adidas, Gap, Lego, Toyota, and the NFL. Longevity requires more than recognition. It requires continuous relevance across shifting generations.

To understand how that works, the author spoke with Matthew Luhn, one of the original Pixar animators on Toy Story and a longtime storyteller for Pixar films including Monsters, Inc., Finding Nemo, Cars, Up, and Ratatouille. Today, he advises Fortune 500 companies on how to build stories and brands that connect across generations.  According to Luhn, there are three core strategies:

1. Don’t take your audience for granted.  “The biggest mistake companies make is assuming loyalty is permanent,” Luhn explains. “They stop prioritizing quality and expect customers to keep coming back anyway.”
2. Use universal emotional themes.  Great storytelling works because it taps into shared human experiences.  “Pixar films succeed across generations because they focus on universal emotions—belonging, fear of loss, purpose,” Luhn says. “Those don’t change with age.”
3. Layer in cultural relevance.  Timeless brands also stay current.  “In Toy Story, the toys evolve with culture,” Luhn says. “What resonated in the 1990s—like Barbie and Mr. Potato Head—looks different from what resonates today, like smartphones and digital devices.”

The bottom line.  The brands that last don’t rely on nostalgia. They evolve without losing their identity.  Whether it’s Toy Story, Lego, or Apple, the formula is consistent: Respect your audience, tap into universal emotion, and stay culturally relevant.  That’s how you build something that doesn’t just sell once but lasts for generations.

The Mohican State Park trail in Ohio is nearly 25 miles long. As the only trail in the entire state to hold an Epic designation from the International Mountain Bicycling Association (IMBA), it offers a true backcountry riding experience, with steep single-track trails that abruptly plunge into sweeping river valleys and densely wooded patches alike.

This is not a trail for casual riders. Completing such a trek requires more than enthusiasm; it requires strategy and instinct. You need to anticipate challenges before they appear in your path, conserve your energy for the most challenging stretches and allow yourself to rest and recover when you’ve earned it.

The author has ridden the Mohican State Park trail on his mountain bike more times than he can count. According to him, some of the lessons it taught him about patience, stamina and willpower have been most valuable when he has faced challenges scaling his business.

1. Recognizing the difference between persistence and stubbornness.  Persistence is a valuable quality to have whenever you’re doing something challenging. Whether you’re navigating through rocks and roots on a steep descent through dense pines with no convenient place to pull off the trail or trying to hit a critical revenue target before the end of the quarter, there’s often no room in sport or business to simply stop trying.  But persistence doesn’t mean exhausting yourself prematurely, and continuing to throw yourself headlong at a problem isn’t always the most effective way to solve it. That’s usually the point at which persistence becomes stubbornness, and stubbornness at the wrong moment often has consequences.  Persistence is a commitment to dealing with a challenge. Stubbornness is an insistence on trying the same tactic over and over again until it finally works. It’s also a waste of resources. Pedaling as hard as you can, even when the terrain will allow you to coast, uses up your energy and leaves you without the stamina you’ll need for the next hill climb. Maintaining aggressive goals for your dealers, even when profits are up, could push some of them to oversell your product and damage their relationships with customers. That’s why his company has always worked with his dealers to agree on mutually acceptable minimum targets and give them the autonomy to set their own pace as long as they’re able to meet them.
2. Going too fast is a recipe for disaster.  I’ve seen friends go to the hospital when they tried to simply “send it” on a difficult section of trail instead of planning their approach. I’ve also met my fair share of roofing contractors who overextended themselves by selling more services than they could reasonably perform in a timely manner.  In one case, the result might be a broken collarbone or torn ligament. In the other case, it’s usually a damaged brand. Both can take years to heal, and both could easily have been avoided with a little more foresight and caution.
3. Growing your business means learning to read the path ahead.  Anytime you do something worthwhile, you’re going to face risks and challenges. That’s not a reason to quit; it’s a warning to prepare yourself for them.  You don’t go mountain biking without checking the pressure in your tires beforehand, packing a first-aid kit and sharing your itinerary with a friend so they can call for help if something unexpected occurs.  You don’t go into business selling a product without rigorously testing it first, training your dealers to sell ahow to use it properly and working with them to create mutually beneficial agreements. All of those steps help you proactively prevent problems down the road.